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The No.10 Women's Football

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Model Accuracy — Public Backtest | The No.10 Women's Football
MethodologyModel Accuracy
Public backtest

How close the model lands to the market

Every point is one player: our model's estimate against an external reference value. We publish the error instead of hiding it — a valuation you can check is worth more than one you can't.

Players tested
24
Median error
20%
absolute, lower is better
Within ±25%
63%
of the reference
Within ±50%
100%
€100K€1.0M€10.0M€100K€1.0M€10.0MAitana Bonmati Conca: €1.2M vs €1.6M (-23%)Alessia Russo: €1.4M vs €1.3M (+4%)Mariona Caldentey Oliver: €775K vs €1.3M (-40%)Patricia Guijarro Gutiérrez: €730K vs €1.3M (-42%)Claudia Pina Medina: €1.1M vs €1.2M (-12%)Ewa Pajor: €740K vs €1.2M (-38%)Alexia Putellas Segura: €700K vs €1.2M (-42%)Klara Bühl: €900K vs €1.1M (-18%)Caroline Graham Hansen: €640K vs €1.1M (-42%)Linda Lizeth Caicedo Alegria: €600K vs €1.0M (-40%)Temwa Chawinga: €740K vs €900K (-18%)Lauren Hemp: €925K vs €825K (+12%)Sophia Olivia Smith: €825K vs €800K (+3%)Trinity Rodman: €740K vs €800K (-7%)Lauren James: €875K vs €700K (+25%)Lena Oberdorf: €470K vs €600K (-22%)Keira Walsh: €490K vs €500K (-2%)Leah Williamson: €660K vs €450K (+47%)Vivianne Miedema: €580K vs €450K (+29%)Sam Kerr: €380K vs €400K (-5%)Ada Hegerberg: €370K vs €400K (-7%)Fridolina Rolfö: €260K vs €350K (-26%)Caroline Weir: €280K vs €300K (-7%)Mary Earps: €250K vs €300K (-17%)Reference value →Model value →
Within ±25%Outside ±25%Model = reference

Median bias: -15% — the model leans slightly below the reference on the median player.

Player by player

PlayerModelReferenceError
€1.2M€1.6M-23%
€1.4M€1.3M+4%
€775K€1.3M-40%
€730K€1.3M-42%
€1.1M€1.2M-12%
€740K€1.2M-38%
€700K€1.2M-42%
ℹ️Reference values come from editorial, soccerdonna and are a cross-check, not ground truth — public references disagree too. See the .
Klara Bühl
€900K
€1.1M
-18%
Caroline Graham Hansen€640K€1.1M-42%
Linda Lizeth Caicedo Alegria€600K€1.0M-40%
Temwa Chawinga€740K€900K-18%
Lauren Hemp€925K€825K+12%
Sophia Olivia Smith€825K€800K+3%
Trinity Rodman€740K€800K-7%
Lauren James€875K€700K+25%
Lena Oberdorf€470K€600K-22%
Keira Walsh€490K€500K-2%
Leah Williamson€660K€450K+47%
Vivianne Miedema€580K€450K+29%
Sam Kerr€380K€400K-5%
Ada Hegerberg€370K€400K-7%
Fridolina Rolfö€260K€350K-26%
Caroline Weir€280K€300K-7%
Mary Earps€250K€300K-17%
Aitana Bonmati Conca
Alessia Russo
Mariona Caldentey Oliver
Patricia Guijarro Gutiérrez
Claudia Pina Medina
Ewa Pajor
Alexia Putellas Segura
methodology